Thinking Through Hunter's Pardon
Welcome to the newest doom loop.
Hey everyone. We are still here, living through the shared reality of a second Donald Trump term and the impending doom. But we can have some fun and talk about Uncle Joe Biden for now.
Also, the Podhaskie household is recovering from sickness this week, so this will be a shorter Jackal.
Before we get into everything, I know there will be a few people who say, “Have you seen Trump’s cabinet picks?!?! Hunter Biden’s pardon is not a news story!” I understand the sentiment, trust me. And one of the big struggles over the next few years is going to be sorting through the stories that attract media attention and the stories that actually matter. But I think Hunter’s pardon is a prism.
I’ll start off by saying that the widespread, mainstream reaction to Joe Biden’s pardon of his son is that it was bad. Obviously the Right hates it, but there was also criticism from the talking heads on CNN and MSNBC. Gavin Newsom even took special time to come out against it. In general, I take a default position that every politician should be in jail, and then their good behavior marginally pushes them away from that punishment, so you can only imagine how I feel.1
But I think there are two counter-narratives/factuals that people are discounting:
The investigation into Hunter was a witch hunt, so of course Joe Biden pardoned him!
There was no legitimate basis for Hunter being charged. It was an attack by the Trump Department of Justice who wanted to create a problem for Joe Biden both before the 2020 Election and for Joe Biden’s (potential) reelection! Trump appointed the prosecutor who charged Hunter and it was always his goal to go after him. Only rabid partisans say otherwise!
Do you think this argument is bogus? Too bad! These are the new rules we live by now and there is nothing you can do about it. I didn’t make these rules; Trump did. Every investigation into him was illegitimate and headed up by the “Deep State,” so every investigation into Democrats is now illegitimate as well. While we’re at it, Biden should pardon Senator Bob Menendez too, who was also targeted by Trump’s Deep State. This was Trump’s reasoning for his pardons of Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, and Paul Manafort, which - off the bat - makes Biden’s pardon of Hunter just as legitimate. If you don’t like this pardon, start off by thanking Donald Trump.
Hunter Biden was going to be targeted by the Trump Administration.
I think point 2 is worth reflecting on (mostly because point 1 is trolling, even if it is also true). There is no question to me that the reason Daddy Joe gave Hunter such a sweeping pardon is because he thinks the Trump Administration is going to go after his son.2 I think Biden is right to worry. It shouldn’t come as a shock that Biden’s pardon came after Trump named Kash Patel as his pick to severe as the head of the FBI.
Patel has explicitly stated that he is going to pursue Trump’s enemies and prosecute them. Patel has named civil servants, journalists, and Democratic members of Congress as the people he is going to go after. He even published a list of names (pro-tip: In a budding autocracy you should not make lists). I am skeptical that Patel is going to get confirmed, mostly because everyone who has ever worked with him thinks he’s an idiot. But Trump choosing Patel - or anyone for the FBI post - is a tell in and of itself.
FBI Directors serve ten-year terms by tradition so that they overlap presidents. Meaning, they are supposed to serve two different presidents to give an appearance of independence. Trump himself appointed the current FBI director - Christopher Wray - in 2017, which means he will still have another two years on his term when Trump comes into Office. There is no reason to replace him, unless Trump wants someone else who will be a little more aggressive.
Patel has signaled that he is that person. Not only does he have lists, but he has also embraced QAnon and is a conspiracy theorist. Even Bill Barr rejected the idea of Patel serving as FBI director out of hand. Trump doesn’t actually need a new FBI director if he truly isn’t going to be retributive. So, why does he want a new one? Truly it’s a mystery!
Hunter’s pardon is a natural consequences of Trump’s Campaign promises. When your candidate makes statement like he is going to go after the “enemies within” and overtly claims that he will be Trump’s supporters’ “retribution,” then it only logically follows that Joe Biden is going to use his power to protect his son (and maybe others!).
I think there is also an entirely separate counter-narrative to the normal “Biden did this to protect his son” argument, although it’s not necessarily one that I believe. I will lay it out for you and then let you come to your own conclusion.
The argument is that Hunter Biden was already targeted by the first Trump Administration, and this current investigation is a result of that targeting. The Federal prosecutor who handled Hunter’s case - David Weiss - was appointed by Donald Trump. In normal circumstances, when a new Administration comes into power, Federal prosecutors who were appointed by the previous president all resign, but Weiss was left on because he was already investigating Hunter.
Instead of ending that investigation when he became President, Joe Biden let it continue. Maybe you could say that was his original mistake (and some Democrats do), but it was probably the right thing to do. Hunter Biden then ends up with two charges that never would have been brought had he been anyone else. The gun charge against him was even criticized by Republicans.3 He had paid all of his taxes back, with fees and penalties. You could say he deserved a charge for failing to register as a foreign agent, but the Department of Justice is not bringing those cases anymore because they do not result in convictions.
So, to ignore Trump's clear intent to punish Hunter is to be naive. He tried to extort the head of a foreign country to get them to launch an investigation of Hunter and it resulted in Trump’s first impeachment. It sucks that Hunter needs a pardon to begin with, but the reason he needs one is that a Trump-appointed prosecutor was going after him.
That is the counterargument and it is one believed fervently by some Democrats. I am sympathetic to it. But I think the big takeaway here is that Trump is inevitably going to try and prosecute his foes and use illegitimate means to do so.
Some critics of Biden will say this now gives Trump the avenue he needs to issue pardons to the people involved in January 6th. To them I say, “I have a wonderful real estate opportunity for some beach front property in Buffalo to show you.”
Trump campaigned on pardoning the “January 6th hostages.” If you didn’t think he was going to pardon them anyway, you weren’t paying attention to what he said on the trail.
Right now, Trump’s pick for Ambassador to France is Charles Kushner, who was sent to prison (by Chris Christie!) for witness tampering, tax evasion, and making illegal campaign contributions. Trump pardoned him. Also, Kushner is the father of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
While Kushner was in the Trump Administration, he organized a campaign to avoid public U.S. criticism of Saudi Arabia after the Kingdom murdered Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Kushner’s private equity firm received a multi-billion dollar deal from Saudi Arabia, which makes Hunter’s random deals in Ukraine and China look like peanuts.
Are you mad about the Hunter pardon but never expressed any anger about Trump’s myriad pardons and subsequent corruption? Congrats, you might just be a Republican partisan.
The Jackal is in Holiday Mode™ but I will have an end of the year piece for you all.
Spoiler: I don’t feel good about it. I also think we need to have a longer discussion about the nature of the pardon power, which (I think) the Founders debated more than any other special privilege granted to the president. The Founders were clearly worried about it being abused and looks like they were obviously right.
It is not a coincidence, for instance, that Biden’s pardon literally sticks to the timeline laid out by Special Counsel Weiss in his investigation. Weiss looked back to 2014 and ultimately determined that he couldn’t find any evidence for anything in that period. Would a new Trump Administration come to the same conclusion? Probably not.
I disagree with Trey Gowdy. Hunter’s case is sui generis, because HE WROTE ABOUT IT IN HIS MEMOIR. It doesn’t take a lot to prove that he committed the crime because he admitted to it!