Trump's Tariffs Were an Unmitigated Disaster
Economics 101 wins the day.
Hey everyone, this is a short Jackal for your weekend read. But I promise it will be fun. It’ll even have a cocktail recipe!
Job growth has picked back up.
The jobs report came out earlier today and it was pretty encouraging: 172K jobs created, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and upward revisions to the two previous months. While there were some negatives, like wage growth being flat, it was generally good news and hopefully a sign of the labor market opening up a little bit.
The stock market was initially unhappy with it, because with inflation now elevated to its highest level since 2022, a strong jobs report increases the chances of a rate hike. But I want to use this jobs report to make an illustration.
From April 1, 2025, a.k.a., “Liberation Day,” until February 2026, the U.S. was creating (on average) 14,000 jobs a month, some of the worst job growth since the Great Recession. Since SCOTUS overturned the majority of Trump’s tariffs in February 2026, job growth has averaged 188,000 jobs a month.1 Here is a visual:
Apr 2025 – Feb 2026 |█| 14k/month
Mar 2026 – May 2026 |█████████████| 188k/month
We do have to wait for final numbers, but it certainly looks like when Trump enacted his tariffs, companies got spooked and stopped hiring. For a while, only healthcare and A.I. were propping up the job market and everyone else was cutting in anticipation of an economic slowdown. Then, SCOTUS stepped in and saved Trump’s economy.
He was furious with them but in reality, he should be eternally thankful. His tariffs and his war in Iran have caused huge spikes in inflation, and with the job market dwindling, it definitely seemed like we were headed into a stagflationary recession. With hiring picking up, we could start to see wage increases that will hopefully start outpacing inflation, but that is a tall ask when the Iran War is likely to drive up gas prices even more over the next few months.
I want to be clear: We are not out of this mess by a long shot, but SCOTUS has definitely helped out. One of the reasons inflation is spiking is because tariffs have a delayed effect: Companies get hit with increased taxes and make an effort to eat some of the cost up front, but eventually they pass the higher costs back to the consumer once they are faced with a more expensive inventory.
Groceries are still going to get more expensive and - I cannot stress this enough - we have not come even close to seeing the effects of the Iran War on prices. While gas prices are high, they have remained as low as they are because oil companies are tapping into their reserves. Those reserves are now almost depleted, and the Strait of Hormuz isn’t even close to being open. Gas prices are going to shoot up this summer, which means everything will get more expensive in the Fall.
To me, Trump’s second term is mostly about three things:
His penchant for revenge (lots to be said about this but we don’t have time).
His stunning incompetence and stupidity.
Him being old.
Two and three put together are causing us lots of pain.
Trump falling asleep during public events is now a weekly occurrence. Here are just a few photos of him passing out in the middle of the day:
This week, while he was testifying in front of the House, Marco Rubio claimed that he had never seen Trump fall asleep. Representative Ted Lieu then showed Rubio footage of Trump falling asleep right next to him:
Dude is old. But his daily naps2 in public illustrate that we are currently at the mercy of a sundowning 80-year-old who is dedicated to his old, outdated ideas on the economy. If you are hoping for Trump to have a change of heart at 79, you are going to be waiting a long time.
I know I have said this many times, but the country as a whole completely fumbled the ball in 2024. The choices were obvious and clear, and you don’t even have to argue that Kamala was even that great of a choice! You just have to acknowledge that she was a better choice than Trump, which is now abundantly and objectively true.
Cocktail Time.
OK, I made this the other day and it was incredible. I don’t know about you, but when the weather gets warmer I shift away from whiskey and move towards lighter drinks with mezcal and gin.
This is a mezcal drink called the Pineapple Express. It is:
1.5 oz Rosemary-Infused Mezcal
1/2 oz Cynar
1/2 oz Averna
3/4 oz Lime Juice
3/4 oz Pineapple Juice
3/4 oz Simple Syrup
I know what you’re thinking: Infusing mezcal with rosemary seems like too much work. It’s really not: Just pour half a cup of mezcal into a container and put a rosemary sprig in it. Super easy, and worth it for this cocktail.
The Jackal family is traveling next week, so we are on vacay. But don’t worry, because we will definitely be back: Before the month of June is over, we get the birthright citizenship case and you know we will cover that. See you all soon.
If your response to this is that Trump fired his BLS Commissioner and therefore we can’t trust the numbers, it’s worth noting that his worst jobs numbers came in the Fall of 2025, directly after the firing.
Worth noting for the umpteenth time that while Joe Biden is also old, he never - not once - fell asleep in the Oval Office during his term. Trump is doing it almost daily.