It's All Unraveling
Donald Trump is having a very bad month.
Guys. Folks. Comrades (this is legally required now that Mamdani won). Habibis. I have started and stopped a Jackal on tariffs, James Comey’s case, and Epstein, but I keep getting punched in the face with real news. So, I am just here collecting my thoughts for you after an insane day.
Why does Donald Trump like Mamdani so much?
President Trump met with mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani today, and if you want to understand their meeting in one picture, here it is:
Trump gushed over Mamdani, and people on both sides of the aisle were in disbelief. Trump said he would happily live in New York under Mamadani, and that he thinks Mamdani is going to “surprise a lot of conservatives” with how good of a job he does. It was truly bizarre.
How did Mamdani get Trump to fawn over him in public? My guess is that Mamdani - who is very smart - effusively praised Trump right before their meeting began. Trump is pretty easy to manipulate and loves being complimented. So give him credit: Mamdani played his cards exactly right.
I would bet Mamdani did so because he needs Trump to help New York, but the side-effect of all this is that Trump just destroyed the GOP’s 2026 messaging campaign. Republicans in the House were going to tie the Democrats to Mamdani’s “radical left” policies and use it nationwide, a la “Defund the Police” in 2020. Trump’s bromance just took that entire narrative away from them.
Also, pour one out for the political consultants who were hoping to cash in on the Elise Stefanik honeypot, as she’s running for governor of New York next year. She was all-in on running against Mamdani and calling him a jihadist, but her campaign will see less money from donors than beach-front property in Alaska. She had to put out this tweet after the meeting:
Debasing yourself and going after New York’s first Muslim mayor all to lose the governor’s race by 15 points more than Lee Zeldin did. No one deserves the embarrassment more.
But it wasn’t just the insane Mamdani meeting. Now Marjorie Taylor Greene is retiring (two days after her congressional pension vests) following her feud with Trump. I think that is more indicative of the writing on the wall than anything else. MTG seems to know what a lot of other Republicans don’t: MAGA is dead.
Trump is a lame duck, as the elections earlier this month proved. Republicans are going to lose the House next year and Trump’s presidency will essentially be over. The Epstein Files are eventually going to be released, even if the Administration delays for as long as possible.1 It’s safe to say that will be bad for Trump, given that even in the small batch of emails that were released last week he was the most mentioned person, by far. Barf.
But I think MTG can see where this is all going and she’s making her pivot. Maybe she will land a media contract as a commentator and get a seven-figure salary. Maybe she takes her campaign money and starts endorsing the true “MAGA” candidates. Or maybe she becomes a CrossFit instructor. In any of these scenarios, she is better off away from MAGA. I don’t think it’s an accident that she began to distance herself from Trump once he started waffling on the Epstein Files. Even then she was able to game out this scenario.
The truth is, Trump is almost 80 years old and will not be President again. On top of that, his second term has been an unmitigated disaster. The economy is spiraling. Trade has plummeted. We are losing manufacturing jobs at a rapid pace. Oh, and inflation is still elevated.
And it’s not just the economy: James Comey’s indictment is now very likely to be dismissed, which will be a huge embarrassment for Trump.2 Depending on the nature of Comey’s dismissal, it is likely that the case against Leticia James will be dismissed too. And SCOTUS really might nuke all of Trump’s tariffs. It is just one haymaker after another.
Don’t take it from me; just look at what a Fox News host had to say:
The blue wave early in the month was really just the beginning. Now, everyone is starting to see it: Trump 2.0 is a huge failure. And it’s not just the vibes either; his approval rating is fully in the toilet:
On the bright side, it is nice to be proven right. But it is more sad than anything else. If Kamala Harris had won last year, job growth would be improving, inflation would be falling, and Trump likely be in a courtroom as opposed to building a giant ballroom next to the White House.
And wrecking the country. That too.
I’ll try to give you a hot take if the Comey dismissal comes. But it may be super close to turkey day and I’m cooking. If you don’t hear from me, Happy Thanksgiving.
Fun fact: A standard Department of Justice tactic is to not release any files related to an “ongoing investigation.” Despite calling the Epstein Files a “hoax” a few months ago, Trump magically decided that they were worthy of an investigation. I don’t know how long DOJ can offer that excuse, given that even the Republicans in Congress want the files to be released.
If I can find the time I’ll drop Jackals on the tariffs and Comey’s case, but the dismissal in Comey’s case is coming before Thanksgiving, so that is a tight squeeze.